Learning the Painful Way- Wx & the Mac Race

Learning The Painful Way-
By far, the biggest sailing news of the North American summer has been
the tragic deaths of Mark Morley and Suzanne Bickel during the Chicago Yacht Club's 2011 Race to Mackinac. Winds
possibly exceeding 100 knots lashed the racing fleet on July 17 at
roughly midnight as lighting pulsated through the pitch-black air and
torrential rain fire-hosed sailors.  During this melee, Morley's
WingNuts, a Kiwi 35, capsized. Six sailors were rescued by Sociable,
but, horrifically, Morley and Bickel were lost.  In the wake of this
disaster, Joe Haas, Commodore of the Chicago Yacht Club (CYC) has asked
US SAILING to conduct an independent investigation of the events that
occurred during this fateful storm.



On July 28, Gary Jobson, President of US SAILING, announced that a panel
of world-class offshore sailors who are also heavily involved with US
SAILING's Safety-At-Sea seminars would do this investigation. This panel
is comprised of Chuck Hawley, Sheila McCurdy, Ralph Naranjo, and John
Rousmaniere. According to the CYC's recent press release, the
independent panel will present its findings to US SAILING and the CYC in
mid-to-late October.



J/News Editor sailed in that race and was near Beaver Island when the
storm hit the fleet while sailing aboard the J/111 IMPULSE.  We saw a
steady 50+ knots and a peak of 63 kts, this intensity only lasted about
15 minutes (or less) but it seemed like an eternity.  Incredibly, we had
a full main, jib and spinnaker flying only 15 minutes later headed
towards Greys Reef at 45 degrees!  We tracked that storm for nearly
FOUR+ hours.  It was NOT a storm to be taken lightly as our private
weather forecasters and NOAA weather forecasters had mentioned for over
48 hours of a Low cell that could easily intensify and travel either
further north into Canada or drop into a path that would take it on a
southerly track closer to Little Traverse Bay/ Charlevoix.  As everyone
knows, it took the southerly track.



For everyone's edification, here's the forecast we received from a
private, commercial weather forecaster that discusses several scenarios,
including the possibility of a severe storm.  In short, our forecaster
simply stated to be on a look-out for these cells and to watch for any
intensification or acceleration- NOAA was saying the same, except the
warnings even on NOAA weather radio just minutes before the front hit
were ONLY indicating winds up to 30+ knots and nothing higher.  It's the
latter reports that may have lulled some of the sailors into believing
the storm was less severe in intensity than what was being observed on
real-time radars.



Fortunately, on the J/111 IMPULSE we had a Garmin GPS Chart Plotter with
an Sirius/XM radar overlay.  We tracked the leading edge of the
"blast/wall" front for hours.  Most shocking was to watch the frontal
edges go from green, yellow, orange over Minnesota and the northern
Michigan peninsula (relatively benign frontal conditions) to orange,
red, purple and nearly obliterated on the screen with lightning bolts
symbols as the frontal edge swept over us in the Fox Islands/ Beaver
Island region just WNW of Charlevoix.  We knew based on the "color
severity" chart for NOAA that we were NOT looking at 30 kts of winds as
NOAA Radio was reporting, but in fact something far in excess of that
figure and perhaps bordering on hurricane velocities instead.  That's
exactly what happened when the "wall front" hit us.  A wall of water and
wind with the water surface simply  boiling white, and a "froth" of
water everywhere around you- "atomized" water vapor may be a better
description.  With full main and spitfire jib we simply heeled over at
45 degrees and headed ENE at 6-7 knots luffing and holding on as
enormous puffs blasted us upwards of 63 knots.



Interviewing
several boats in our vicinity later, it was clear that some boats just
3-5 miles ENE of our location ONLY saw 30-35 knots, sailed under full
main and partially-furled jibs on a full-on plane towards Greys Reef
under total control.  Others North, West and Southwest of us got blasted
by the same "purple/thunderbolt" cell many have heard or read about. 
We knew we were hit by the absolute worst part of the storm based on our
Lat/Lon and the analysis of the radar patterns afterwards provided by
NOAA's radar archives.  100 knots is a bit far-fetched on the surface of
Lake Michigan based on NOAA's doppler radar data we've seen to date,
however, there were blasts as high as 93 knots at 45,000 feet-- perhaps
super cells can create massive "microbursts" that hit similar speeds (or
higher) on the water surface, but those are usually associated with
extreme turbulence as experienced when massive fronts roll onto the flat
Prairies just East of the Rockies-- as often seen at Denver
International Airport.



Here are several links to the NOAA digital radar data of the evening
when the storms hit the Chicago-Mackinac fleet around midnight Midwest/ 1
am Eastern time Sunday/Monday- the magnitude of the storms was
breathtaking-- these radar images of the frontal passage over the
sailing area for the Mackinac fleet are simply remarkable.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6nPJp2ARWA



These video shows the "vertical wind profile" of the front approaching
the Charlevoix/ Harbor Springs airport radars.  It's a stunning display
of how fronts move forward at you and it depicts both wind strength and
direction going from "lake level" to the stratosphere upwards of 50,000
feet--- a mind-blowing phenomenon and indicative of the power of the
storm to see such incredibly high "tops" on a storm smashing the fleet
at midnight on a warm summer day.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp0Ao_au2oQ

  

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